September 2026
- Sep 21, 2026ConceptsThe Map Is Not the Territory: Why Models MisleadThe map is not the territory explained via Korzybski, Borges, and Box: why every model omits, whom maps reflect, and how to use them without being misled.
- Sep 14, 2026ConceptsSecond-Order Thinking: Considering the Consequences of ConsequencesSecond-order thinking explained: how asking 'and then what?' reveals the consequences of consequences, why solutions backfire, and how to apply it to decisions.
- Sep 7, 2026ConceptsOccam's Razor: When the Simplest Explanation WinsOccam's razor explained: why parsimony works, its Bayesian basis, where it fails (Hickam's dictum), Morgan's Canon in animals, and how to use it well.
July 2026
- Jul 24, 2026ConceptsThe Overton Window Framework: How Ideas Become Politically PossibleThe Overton window explained: how the range of politically acceptable ideas forms, why politicians follow it, and how extremes, repetition, and crises move it.
- Jul 18, 2026ConceptsThe Sunk Cost Fallacy: Why We Throw Good Money After BadThe sunk cost fallacy explained: Arkes and Blumer's theatre experiment, loss aversion, the Concorde fallacy, escalation of commitment, and how to beat it.
- Jul 15, 2026ConceptsThe Premortem: Imagining Failure Before It HappensThe premortem technique explained: how imagining a project has already failed, via prospective hindsight, surfaces risks that ordinary planning misses.
- Jul 12, 2026ConceptsThe Availability Heuristic: Why Vivid Beats LikelyThe availability heuristic explained: why we judge probability by ease of recall, how vivid events distort risk, and how to defend against the bias.
- Jul 9, 2026ConceptsThe Anchoring Effect: How the First Number Shapes the RestThe anchoring effect explained through Tversky and Kahneman's wheel experiment, selective accessibility, courtroom and pricing examples, and how to fight it.
April 2026
March 2026
- Mar 13, 2026ConceptsThe Curse of Knowledge Explained: Why Experts Misjudge What Beginners KnowExpertise can make explanation harder because knowing something distorts your estimate of what others know. What the Newton, Nickerson, Camerer and Hinds research establishes, where its limits are, and what reliably reduces the gap.
- Mar 12, 2026ConceptsFraming Effects: How Presentation Changes MeaningFraming effects show how the same information presented differently creates different reactions.
- Mar 5, 2026ConceptsWhy Most Decisions Fail Due to Poor FramingPoor decision framing means asking the wrong question. 'Should I quit?' differs from 'What career maximizes growth?' Frame determines outcomes.
July 2025
June 2025
January 2025
- Jan 19, 2025ConceptsSystem Justification Theory and Its Social ImplicationsWomen rate male job candidates more favorably than identical female candidates. Working-class voters oppose redistribution more strongly than the...
- Jan 10, 2025ConceptsProspect Theory: Why Framing Changes How Outcomes FeelTversky and Kahneman's 1981 Asian Disease Problem: 72% of subjects chose certain survival of 200 people over a gamble for all 600.
- Jan 8, 2025ConceptsMental Accounting: Why a Dollar Is Not Always a DollarYou have two $100 bills in your wallet: one earmarked for rent, one for entertainment. You spend the entertainment $100 on dinner.
- Jan 4, 2025ConceptsImplicit Bias: Exploring Unconscious PrejudicesIn 1998, Anthony Greenwald, Debbie McGhee, and Jordan Schwartz published the Implicit Association Test, a measure of automatic mental associations...
- Jan 2, 2025ConceptsCognitive Dissonance Reduction StrategiesA smoker who knows smoking causes cancer has a problem: the belief 'I smoke' conflicts with the belief 'smoking kills.' The discomfort of that...
- Jan 1, 2025ConceptsAnchoring and Adjustment: Influence of Initial NumbersTversky and Kahneman spun a rigged wheel that landed on either 10 or 65, then asked subjects how many African countries are in the United Nations.
December 2024
- Dec 29, 2024ConceptsPsychological Reactance: Why Bans BackfireIn 1975, Stephen Worchel put two cookies in one jar and ten in another, then told subjects the scarce jar was limited due to demand.
- Dec 21, 2024ConceptsAttribution Theory: Misunderstanding ActionsIn 1967, Jones and Harris had subjects read essays supporting Fidel Castro's Cuba. Even when subjects were explicitly told the writers had been...
- Dec 17, 2024ConceptsThe Mere Exposure Effect: Why Familiarity Breeds LikingIn 1968, Robert Zajonc exposed subjects to nonsense words, Chinese characters, and photographs of faces at varying frequencies.
- Dec 16, 2024ConceptsThe Just-World Hypothesis: Understanding Victim BlameIn the mid-1960s, Melvin Lerner showed subjects an innocent woman receiving electric shocks. Unable to stop the shocks, observers began to derogate her,...
- Dec 15, 2024ConceptsThe False Consensus Effect: Misjudging Social NormsIn 1977, Lee Ross asked Stanford students whether they would walk around campus wearing a sandwich board reading 'Eat at Joe's.' Those who agreed...
- Dec 12, 2024ConceptsUnderstanding Cognitive Bias: Irrational JudgmentsCognitive biases are systematic errors in thinking that cause people to make irrational judgments, often without realizing it, affecting decisions...
- Dec 11, 2024ConceptsThe Self-Serving Bias: Taking Credit, Avoiding BlameIn 1964, Johnson, Feigenbaum, and Weiby gave teachers feedback on a student's performance. When the student improved, teachers attributed it to...
- Dec 9, 2024ConceptsMoral Licensing: How Good Deeds Allow Bad BehaviorIn 2001, Benoît Monin and Dale Miller at Stanford showed that subjects who had the opportunity to establish moral credentials, by disagreeing...
- Dec 5, 2024ConceptsIllusory Correlation: Patterns that Mislead Our MindsIn 1967, Loren Chapman showed clinical psychologists Draw-a-Person test responses and patient diagnoses.
- Dec 4, 2024ConceptsHindsight Bias ExplainedHindsight bias is the tendency to believe after an event that you predicted it all along. Learn the psychology, research, and real-world consequences.
- Dec 3, 2024ConceptsThe Representativeness Heuristic: Judging by AppearancesLinda is 31, outspoken, a philosophy major, passionate about social justice. Is she more likely to be a bank teller, or a bank teller active in the...
- Dec 2, 2024ConceptsThe Negativity Bias: Why Bad Is Stronger Than GoodJohn Gottman's lab found that marriages headed for divorce had a ratio of positive to negative interactions of about 0.8:1.
- Dec 1, 2024ConceptsWhat Is the Status Quo BiasStatus quo bias is our tendency to prefer the current state of affairs over change. Learn about Samuelson and Zeckhauser's research, loss aversion, and how to overcome it.
November 2024
- Nov 29, 2024ConceptsChoice Overload: When More Options Produce Fewer DecisionsAt Draeger's grocery store in 1995, a display of 24 jams attracted 60% of passing shoppers. A display of 6 jams attracted 40%.
- Nov 28, 2024ConceptsThe Endowment Effect: Why We Overvalue What We OwnIn 1990, Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler randomly gave Cornell students a coffee mug. Sellers demanded a median $7.12 to give it up.
- Nov 27, 2024ConceptsThe Overconfidence Effect: The Mistakes of the SmartIn 1998, Long-Term Capital Management, run by two Nobel laureates and a team of PhDs, lost $4.6 billion in under four months.
- Nov 26, 2024ConceptsIn-Group Bias: The Psychology of Group FavoritismIn 1971, Henri Tajfel assigned Bristol schoolboys to groups based on a coin flip. Within minutes, they were systematically favoring their own...
- Nov 25, 2024ConceptsFraming Effect: How Presentation Influences DecisionsIn Kahneman and Tversky's 1981 experiment, 72% of people chose the option that saved 200 lives.
- Nov 23, 2024ConceptsWhat Is the Recency Bias: How Recent Events Distort JudgmentRecency bias causes people to overweight recent events in their judgments and decisions. Learn the psychology, investing implications, and how to counteract it.
- Nov 22, 2024ConceptsThe Optimism Bias: Why We Expect the Best OutcomesIn 1957, the Sydney Opera House was estimated at £3.5 million, to be completed by 1963. Final cost: AUD $102 million. Completed: 1973.
- Nov 21, 2024ConceptsGambler's Fallacy: Misconceptions About RandomnessOn August 18, 1913, a Monte Carlo roulette wheel hit black 26 consecutive times. Gamblers lost millions betting on red, certain it was 'due.' The...
- Nov 20, 2024ConceptsThe Halo EffectIn 1920, Edward Thorndike noticed that military officers who rated their soldiers as intelligent also rated them as physically fit, loyal, and dependable, and vice versa. The ratings correlated far more strongly than the actual traits could possibly justify. Thorndike had identified the halo effect: a single positive impression radiates outward and distorts every subsequent judgment. A century later, research shows the halo follows us into hiring, justice, medicine, and every relationship we form.
- Nov 19, 2024ConceptsAnchoring Bias: The First Number Shapes Your MindIn 1974, Kahneman and Tversky spun a rigged wheel in front of subjects, who knew it was rigged, and it still bent their estimates.
- Nov 16, 2024ConceptsThe Fundamental Attribution ErrorIn 1967, Edward Jones and Victor Harris asked students to rate the true attitudes of essayists who had written pro-Castro arguments. When told the writer chose the position freely, students inferred pro-Castro attitudes. When told the writer was assigned the position (forced to argue a side they might not believe), students still inferred pro-Castro attitudes. The situational constraint made no difference. The fundamental attribution error: we systematically underestimate the power of situations and overestimate the role of character when explaining other people's behavior.
- Nov 14, 2024ConceptsConfirmation Bias: Why We Find What We're Looking ForIn 1960, Peter Wason showed subjects the sequence 2-4-6 and told them it followed a rule. To discover the rule, they proposed triples. Almost universally, subjects proposed triples that fit their hypothesis, such as 4-6-8, 10-12-14, and almost never proposed triples that could disprove it. The rule was simply 'any ascending sequence.' Confirmation bias: the systematic tendency to search for, favor, and remember information that confirms what we already believe.
- Nov 13, 2024ConceptsLoss Aversion: Why Losing $100 Hurts More Than Winning $150Kahneman and Tversky's 1979 prospect theory established that losses loom roughly 2 to 2.5 times larger than equivalent gains in subjective weight. Most people refuse a coin flip where they win $150 if heads and lose $100 if tails, despite a positive expected value. Loss aversion shapes housing markets, sports decisions, financial portfolios, and why we stay in bad situations far longer than rational calculation would predict.
- Nov 11, 2024ConceptsRegression to the Mean: Statistical Insights ExplainedIsraeli Air Force flight instructors were certain punishment worked better than praise: every time they praised a good flight, the next was worse.
- Nov 10, 2024ConceptsThe Availability Heuristic and Media: Why What Comes to Mind Feels Like What Is TrueTversky and Kahneman asked subjects whether more English words begin with the letter K or have K as their third letter. Most said K-first, wrong by a factor of three. Words starting with K are just easier to retrieve. The availability heuristic: we judge probability and frequency by how easily examples come to mind, not by how common they actually are. The science behind risk misperception, media effects, and why we fear the wrong things.
- Nov 9, 2024ConceptsDunning-Kruger Effect: Misjudging CompetenceMcArthur Wheeler robbed two banks in broad daylight wearing no disguise: he had rubbed lemon juice on his face and believed it made him invisible...
- Nov 7, 2024ConceptsThe Map Is Not the Territory: Why Models Always LieAlfred Korzybski's principle: every model is an abstraction that omits, simplifies, and distorts. Long-Term Capital Management.
October 2024
February 2024
December 2023
- Dec 21, 2023ConceptsHofstadter's Law: Understanding Time Management DelaysHofstadter's Law states it always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
- Dec 16, 2023ConceptsThink Critically: Science and Practical Steps for ReasoningWhat cognitive science, forecasting research, and epistemic psychology reveal about why reasoning fails and how to actually improve it.
- Dec 14, 2023ConceptsWhy Smart People Make Irrational Financial ChoicesSmart people make terrible financial decisions all the time. Behavioral economics explains the cognitive biases, loss aversion, present bias,...
November 2023
September 2023
August 2023
May 2023
December 2022
- Dec 29, 2022ConceptsWhat Is Narrative Fallacy: How Stories Mislead UsThe narrative fallacy, coined by Nassim Taleb, explains why humans impose causal stories on random events.
- Dec 23, 2022ConceptsDunning-Kruger Effect: Key Research and MythsThe Dunning-Kruger effect explained: the original 1999 research, the replication debates, what it actually claims vs the meme version, and what it...
- Dec 22, 2022ConceptsUnderstanding Confirmation Bias in Decision-MakingConfirmation bias explained: the Wason selection task, why it evolved, how it shapes politics, investing, and science, and proven strategies to...
- Dec 20, 2022ConceptsAvailability Heuristic Psychology: How This Cognitive Bias Works in the BrainThe availability heuristic makes us judge probability by how easily examples come to mind. Learn how it distorts risk perception and how to...
November 2022
October 2022
- Oct 15, 2022ConceptsPrice Anchoring: How Initial Numbers Influence ValuePrice anchoring is the cognitive bias where the first number you see shapes all subsequent judgments of value.
- Oct 11, 2022ConceptsBaader-Meinhof Phenomenon: The Frequency Illusion ExplainedThe Baader-Meinhof phenomenon makes you suddenly see something everywhere after first noticing it.
- Oct 7, 2022ConceptsSurvivorship Bias: The Hidden Graveyard of Failed EvidenceIn 1943, military analysts studied bullet holes on returning bombers to decide where to add armor.
- Oct 3, 2022ConceptsUnderstanding the Spotlight Effect: Perception BiasThe spotlight effect is the cognitive bias causing us to overestimate how much others notice and judge us.
September 2022
- Sep 27, 2022ConceptsUnderstanding Exponential Growth and Our LimitationsExponential growth compounds on itself, doubling repeatedly. Learn why humans instinctively think linearly, how the chessboard problem illustrates...
- Sep 26, 2022ConceptsUnderstanding Availability Bias in InvestingThe availability bias causes investors to overweight recent dramatic events. Learn how it distorts portfolio decisions and how to counteract it...
- Sep 4, 2022ConceptsThe Spotlight Effect and Its Role in Social AnxietyThe spotlight effect makes you feel observed and judged more than you are. Learn how social anxiety amplifies it and how CBT can help you see more...
August 2022
- Aug 27, 2022ConceptsFluency Effect: Why Easy Processing Feels TrueThe fluency effect means our brains mistake ease of processing for truth. Learn how font, rhyme, and clarity shape what we believe and how to...
- Aug 25, 2022ConceptsThe Availability Cascade: Media Influence on PerceptionThe availability cascade explains how repeated media coverage turns unverified claims into perceived facts.
July 2022
- Jul 20, 2022ConceptsImpact of Availability Heuristic in HealthcareThe availability heuristic distorts healthcare decisions for patients and doctors alike. Learn how fear of rare diseases drives over-testing and...
- Jul 3, 2022ConceptsRetrospective Sensemaking: How We Reconstruct Our PastHow humans construct coherent narratives from ambiguous experience after the fact, and why this matters for learning, memory, and decision-making.
- Jul 1, 2022ConceptsWhat Is the Default Effect: Why Pre-Selected Options WinThe default effect shows that pre-selected options are chosen far more often than alternatives.
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