Cognitive Biases Explained with Examples
Cognitive biases: confirmation bias seeking supporting evidence, anchoring to first numbers, availability bias valuing recent events, and sunk cost fallacy.
January 2026
What Is Decision Making Under Uncertainty?
Decision making under uncertainty means choosing when you don't know all outcomes or probabilities. Use probabilistic thinking and scenarios.
Decision Frameworks Used by High Performers
High performers use frameworks like second-order thinking, regret minimization, and expected value to make better decisions systematically.
December 2025
Mental Models for Better Decisions
Mental models for decisions include second-order thinking, inversion, first principles, and probabilistic reasoning to make better choices systematically.
How Values Shape Decisions
Values act as decision filters that determine what you consider, ignore, and prioritize. Most values operate unconsciously until they conflict.
How to Choose the Right Mental Model
Choose mental models by matching problem type: first principles for novelty, probabilistic thinking for uncertainty, systems thinking for complexity.
Analytical Models vs Intuition
Analytical models excel in stable, data-rich environments. Intuition wins in complex, ambiguous situations with time pressure. Use both strategically.
When Frameworks Fail
Frameworks fail when context changes, oversimplification hides critical nuance, rigidity prevents adaptation, or wrong model is applied to problem.
The Limits of Rules
Rules fail when context changes, complexity increases beyond anticipation, or people game them by optimizing the rule instead of the intended goal.
November 2025
Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions
Intelligence doesn't prevent bias. Overconfidence makes smart people overestimate ability. Blind spots persist regardless of IQ.