Probability

September 2026

• Sep 7, 2026ConceptsOccam's Razor: When the Simplest Explanation WinsOccam's razor explained: why parsimony works, its Bayesian basis, where it fails (Hickam's dictum), Morgan's Canon in animals, and how to use it well.15 MIN538

March 2026

• Mar 3, 2026ConceptsRisk vs Uncertainty: What People ConfuseRisk has known probabilities; uncertainty doesn't. With risk you can calculate odds, with uncertainty you can't even assign probabilities to outcomes.24 MIN42.0k

June 2025

• Jun 19, 2025ExplainersOrigins of Decision Theory: Key DevelopmentsDecision theory origins: Bernoulli introduced expected utility in 1738. Von Neumann and Morgenstern developed game theory and axioms of...40 MIN43.8k
• Jun 3, 2025ExplainersUsing Decision Theory in Everyday ChoicesApply decision theory: list all options, define outcomes for each, assign probabilities to outcomes, calculate expected values, then choose...51 MIN29.8k

December 2024

• Dec 3, 2024ConceptsThe Representativeness Heuristic: Judging by AppearancesLinda is 31, outspoken, a philosophy major, passionate about social justice. Is she more likely to be a bank teller, or a bank teller active in the...21 MIN3.1k

November 2024

• Nov 21, 2024ConceptsGambler's Fallacy: Misconceptions About RandomnessOn August 18, 1913, a Monte Carlo roulette wheel hit black 26 consecutive times. Gamblers lost millions betting on red, certain it was 'due.' The...24 MIN1.2k

November 2022

• Nov 18, 2022ConceptsThinking About Risk: A Practical Framework ExplainedA practical framework for thinking about risk: expected value vs utility, availability heuristic, tail risks, diversification, and the Kelly...20 MIN3.1k

August 2022

• Aug 6, 2022ConceptsMonte Carlo Method: How Randomness Solves Complex ProblemsThe Monte Carlo method uses random sampling to solve problems too complex for direct calculation.16 MIN4.7k