Using Decision Theory in Everyday Choices
Apply decision theory: list all options, define outcomes for each, assign probabilities to outcomes, calculate expected values, then choose highest value.
February 2026
December 2025
Risk vs Uncertainty: What People Confuse
Risk has known probabilities; uncertainty doesn't. With risk you can calculate odds, with uncertainty you can't even assign probabilities to outcomes.
Origins of Decision Theory
Decision theory origins: Bernoulli introduced expected utility in 1738. Von Neumann and Morgenstern developed game theory and axioms of rationality in 1944.