Risk vs Uncertainty: What People Confuse
Risk has known probabilities; uncertainty doesn't. With risk you can calculate odds, with uncertainty you can't even assign probabilities to outcomes.
March 2026
June 2025
Origins of Decision Theory
Decision theory origins: Bernoulli introduced expected utility in 1738. Von Neumann and Morgenstern developed game theory and axioms of...
Using Decision Theory in Everyday Choices
Apply decision theory: list all options, define outcomes for each, assign probabilities to outcomes, calculate expected values, then choose...
December 2024
The Representativeness Heuristic: Why We Judge by Resemblance and Pay the Price
Linda is 31, outspoken, a philosophy major, passionate about social justice. Is she more likely to be a bank teller, or a bank teller active in the...
November 2024
The Gambler's Fallacy: Why the Mind Insists the Universe Keeps Score
On August 18, 1913, a Monte Carlo roulette wheel hit black 26 consecutive times. Gamblers lost millions betting on red, certain it was 'due.' The...
November 2022
How to Think About Risk: A Practical Framework
A practical framework for thinking about risk: expected value vs utility, availability heuristic, tail risks, diversification, and the Kelly...
August 2022
What Is the Monte Carlo Method: How Randomness Solves Hard Problems
The Monte Carlo method uses random sampling to solve problems too complex for direct calculation.