Adaptation

February 2026

• Feb 16, 2026ConceptsWhen Frameworks FailFrameworks fail in patterns you can spot in advance, among them context mismatch, rigidity bias, static models in changing markets, and mistaking the map for the territory. The Gaussian copula is the sharpest case: David Li's correlation formula was calibrated on corporate bond defaults in stable credit conditions, then applied to mortgages in a housing market that had never fallen nationwide, with his own warning left out.16 MIN53.6k

January 2026

• Jan 29, 2026ConceptsWhy Principles Outlast TacticsThe case for learning why something works rather than memorizing what to do, with four methods for extracting a principle from a tactic: ask why repeatedly, find the pattern across tactics that succeed, test it in another domain, and name the mechanism. The durability claim is checked against a review of 363 New England Journal of Medicine articles testing established practice, of which 146, about 40%, proved to be reversals.18 MIN15.9k
• Jan 29, 2026ConceptsWhy Laws Break When Context ChangesSix kinds of context change that invalidate a working principle, three warning signs that context has shifted, and a hierarchy showing which rules survive travel. The clearest case is McNamara applying Drucker's Management by Objectives to the Vietnam War: body count became the measure of progress because it was quantifiable, and units under that pressure falsified reports and counted civilian casualties as combatants.20 MIN24.5k

June 2025

• Jun 27, 2025ExplainersHow Complex Systems AdaptAdaptation needs three things at once: variation to supply alternatives, selection to reinforce what works, and retention to carry it forward. Stuart Kauffman's Boolean network studies placed the most adaptive systems at the "edge of chaos," too ordered and they freeze, too chaotic and they never settle. Failure modes get equal weight: Kodak invented a digital camera in 1975 and still filed for bankruptcy in 2012, its whole structure optimized around film.32 MIN24.0k