What Is Decision Making Under Uncertainty?
Decision making under uncertainty means choosing when you don't know all outcomes or probabilities. Use probabilistic thinking and scenarios.
March 2026
Probabilistic Thinking: How Better Decisions Are Made
Probabilistic thinking means thinking in likelihoods rather than absolutes. Assign probabilities to outcomes to make better decisions under uncertainty.
Risk vs Uncertainty: What People Confuse
Risk has known probabilities; uncertainty doesn't. With risk you can calculate odds, with uncertainty you can't even assign probabilities to outcomes.
November 2025
Leading Through Uncertainty: Decision-Making When You Don't Know
Leading through uncertainty: Decide with incomplete information, communicate confidence not certainty, admit what you don't know building trust, adapt quickly.
July 2025
Decision-Making Checklist for Uncertain Situations
Identify biases like confirmation bias. List assumptions explicitly. Consider alternatives. Define criteria. Test decisions at small scale first.
November 2024
How to Make Better Decisions Under Uncertainty
Most important decisions happen under uncertainty. Learn expected value thinking, pre-mortems, base rates, and Jeff Bezos's Type 1 vs Type 2 framework.