Uncertainty

March 2026

• Mar 5, 2026ConceptsWhat Is Decision Making Under Uncertainty?Decision making under uncertainty means choosing when you don't know all outcomes or probabilities. Use probabilistic thinking and scenarios.35 MIN18.5k
• Mar 4, 2026ConceptsProbabilistic Thinking for Enhanced Decision-MakingProbabilistic thinking means thinking in likelihoods rather than absolutes. Assign probabilities to outcomes to make better decisions under...28 MIN3.8k
• Mar 3, 2026ConceptsRisk vs Uncertainty: What People ConfuseRisk has known probabilities; uncertainty doesn't. With risk you can calculate odds, with uncertainty you can't even assign probabilities to outcomes.24 MIN42.0k

November 2025

• Nov 3, 2025Work SkillsLeading in Uncertainty: Making Decisions Amidst AmbiguityLeading through uncertainty: Decide with incomplete information, communicate confidence not certainty, admit what you don't know building trust,...20 MIN21.2k

July 2025

• Jul 12, 2025ExplainersDecision-Making Checklist for Uncertain SituationsIdentify biases like confirmation bias. List assumptions explicitly. Consider alternatives. Define criteria. Test decisions at small scale first.28 MIN13.3k

September 2021

• Sep 6, 2021ConceptsMaking Informed Decisions in Uncertain SituationsMost important decisions happen under uncertainty. Learn expected value thinking, pre-mortems, base rates, and Jeff Bezos's Type 1 vs Type 2...18 MIN3.4k