The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Why the Incompetent Don't Know They're Incompetent

In 1995, McArthur Wheeler robbed two Pittsburgh banks in broad daylight without a disguise. When police showed him surveillance footage, he was genuinely baffled. He had rubbed lemon juice on his face, believing it would make him invisible to cameras. This story prompted David Dunning and Justin Kruger's 1999 study: people with limited knowledge systematically overestimate their competence — because the skills needed to recognize incompetence are the same skills needed to perform competently.