The Premortem: Imagining Failure Before It Happens
The premortem technique explained: how imagining a project has already failed, via prospective hindsight, surfaces risks that ordinary planning misses.
July 2026
March 2026
Probabilistic Thinking for Enhanced Decision-Making
Probabilistic thinking means thinking in likelihoods rather than absolutes. Assign probabilities to outcomes to make better decisions under...
December 2024
What Is the Planning Fallacy and Why Projects Always Run
The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate how long projects will take despite knowing that similar projects ran over. Learn the science, the inside view trap, and reference class forecasting.