Probabilistic Thinking: How Better Decisions Are Made
Probabilistic thinking means thinking in likelihoods rather than absolutes. Assign probabilities to outcomes to make better decisions under uncertainty.
March 2026
December 2024
What Is the Planning Fallacy and Why Projects Always Run Late
The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate how long projects will take despite knowing that similar projects ran over. Learn the science, the inside view trap, and reference class forecasting.