The Premortem: Imagining Failure Before It Happens
The premortem technique explained: how imagining a project has already failed, via prospective hindsight, surfaces risks that ordinary planning misses.
July 2026
The Availability Heuristic: Why Vivid Beats Likely
The availability heuristic explained: why we judge probability by ease of recall, how vivid events distort risk, and how to defend against the bias.
November 2022
Thinking About Risk: A Practical Framework Explained
A practical framework for thinking about risk: expected value vs utility, availability heuristic, tail risks, diversification, and the Kelly...