Risk

August 2026

• Aug 31, 2026ConceptsInversion: Solving Problems by Thinking BackwardInversion explained through Jacobi, Charlie Munger, the premortem, and the via negativa: why thinking backward and avoiding failure beats chasing success.14 MIN222

July 2026

• Jul 15, 2026ConceptsThe Premortem: Imagining Failure Before It HappensThe premortem technique explained: how imagining a project has already failed, via prospective hindsight, surfaces risks that ordinary planning misses.15 MIN1.3k
• Jul 12, 2026ConceptsThe Availability Heuristic: Why Vivid Beats LikelyThe availability heuristic explained: why we judge probability by ease of recall, how vivid events distort risk, and how to defend against the bias.15 MIN1.7k

November 2022

• Nov 18, 2022ConceptsThinking About Risk: A Practical Framework ExplainedA practical framework for thinking about risk: expected value vs utility, availability heuristic, tail risks, diversification, and the Kelly...20 MIN3.3k