February 2026
- Feb 10, 2026ConceptsHow Goodhart's Law Breaks MetricsGoodhart's 1975 observation that a statistical regularity collapses once it is used for control explains teaching to the test, surgeons avoiding high-risk patients, and Compstat crime reclassification. Wells Fargo's cross-selling target produced about 3.5 million potentially unauthorized accounts in the bank's expanded review, $185 million in 2016 fines and a $3 billion settlement in 2020. Also: detection signs and eight harder-to-game metric designs.
- Feb 5, 2026ConceptsWhy Metrics Often MisleadGoodhart noticed every monetary aggregate the Bank of England targeted lost its predictive validity once it became a target, and the pattern repeats. Wells Fargo staff opened an estimated 3.5 million unauthorized accounts chasing cross-selling numbers, and in 2014 the UK Statistics Authority stripped police-recorded crime of its National Statistics designation after an inspectorate report found around 19 percent of crimes under-recorded.
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