The Optimism Bias: Why We Expect the Best Outcomes
In 1957, the Sydney Opera House was estimated at £3.5 million, to be completed by 1963. Final cost: AUD $102 million. Completed: 1973.
November 2024
December 2023
Hofstadter's Law: Understanding Time Management Delays
Hofstadter's Law states it always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
Accurate Predictions Using Reference Class Forecasting
Reference class forecasting ignores your specific plan and uses historical outcomes of similar projects to predict what will actually happen.
August 2023
The Planning Fallacy: Underestimating Time and Cost
Daniel Kahneman was part of a team writing a psychology curriculum. They predicted it would take 2 years.
April 2023
Effective Time Management Techniques: What Research Says
Time management research reveals what actually works: time audits, timeboxing, and beating the planning fallacy, and why to-do lists alone...