Planning Fallacy

November 2024

• Nov 22, 2024ConceptsThe Optimism Bias: Why We Expect the Best OutcomesIn 1957, the Sydney Opera House was estimated at £3.5 million, to be completed by 1963. Final cost: AUD $102 million. Completed: 1973.22 MIN4.2k

December 2023

• Dec 21, 2023ConceptsHofstadter's Law: Understanding Time Management DelaysHofstadter's Law states it always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.15 MIN1.9k
• Dec 1, 2023ConceptsAccurate Predictions Using Reference Class ForecastingReference class forecasting ignores your specific plan and uses historical outcomes of similar projects to predict what will actually happen.13 MIN7.9k

August 2023

• Aug 7, 2023ConceptsThe Planning Fallacy: Underestimating Time and CostDaniel Kahneman was part of a team writing a psychology curriculum. They predicted it would take 2 years.23 MIN7.0k

April 2023

• Apr 1, 2023Work SkillsEffective Time Management Techniques: What Research SaysTime management research reveals what actually works: time audits, timeboxing, and beating the planning fallacy, and why to-do lists alone...17 MIN8.7k