All articles tagged with "Planning Fallacy"
The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate how long projects will take despite knowing that similar projects ran over. Learn the science, the inside view trap, and reference class forecasting.
In 1957, the Sydney Opera House was estimated at £3.5 million, to be completed by 1963. Final cost: AUD $102 million. Completed: 1973.
Hofstadter's Law states it always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
Reference class forecasting ignores your specific plan and uses historical outcomes of similar projects to predict what will actually happen.
Daniel Kahneman was part of a team writing a psychology curriculum. They predicted it would take 2 years.
Time management research reveals what actually works: time audits, timeboxing, and beating the planning fallacy — and why to-do lists alone...