February 2026
- Feb 9, 2026ConceptsInterpreting Data Without Fooling YourselfCorrelation confusion, p-hacking, base rate neglect, Simpson's paradox, survivorship bias, regression to the mean, cherry-picking and ignored effect sizes, each with a worked example and a countermeasure. Simmons, Nelson and Simonsohn's 2011 False-Positive Psychology paper showed that undisclosed analytical flexibility can push false positive rates as high as 61 percent while the nominal threshold stays at 5 percent.
- Feb 5, 2026ConceptsWhy Metrics Often MisleadGoodhart noticed every monetary aggregate the Bank of England targeted lost its predictive validity once it became a target, and the pattern repeats. Wells Fargo staff opened an estimated 3.5 million unauthorized accounts chasing cross-selling numbers, and in 2014 the UK Statistics Authority stripped police-recorded crime of its National Statistics designation after an inspectorate report found around 19 percent of crimes under-recorded.
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