Analyzing Campbell's Law and Its Implications
Campbell's Law states that the more a quantitative measure is used for high-stakes decisions, the more it corrupts the process it was meant to...
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Campbell's Law states that the more a quantitative measure is used for high-stakes decisions, the more it corrupts the process it was meant to...
Chesterton's Fence: don't remove what you don't understand. From Mao's sparrow campaign that killed millions to Glass-Steagall's repeal causing the...
Cognitive principles shaping decisions: bounded rationality from limited mental capacity, cognitive load that drains energy, and availability bias.
Theory of Constraints: Identify the bottleneck limiting system performance. Optimizing non-constraints wastes effort without improving throughput.
Conway's Law states that organizations design systems that mirror their own communication structures.
Diminishing returns means more input yields less output over time. Supply and demand set prices.
First-order effects are immediate and obvious. Second-order effects are what happens next — often larger and opposite.
On September 26, 1983, Soviet Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov watched five US missiles appear on his early warning screen. He chose not to retaliate — reasoning that a real attack would involve hundreds, not five. The system had a bug. Hanlon's Razor:...
On September 26, 1983, Soviet Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov watched five US missiles appear on his early warning screen.
Hofstadter's Law states it always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
Inversion is asking what guarantees failure instead of what guarantees success. Florence Nightingale cut mortality from 42% to 2% using it.
Occam's Razor holds that the simplest explanation with fewest assumptions is usually correct.
The cobra effect occurs when an incentive designed to fix a problem makes it worse. Learn the origin story, Goodhart's Law connection, and how to...
Rules fail when context changes, complexity increases beyond anticipation, or people game them by optimizing the rule instead of the intended goal.
The Lindy Effect says non-perishable things that have survived longer are expected to survive longer still.
Alfred Korzybski's principle: every model is an abstraction that omits, simplifies, and distorts. Long-Term Capital Management.
The Pareto Principle (80/20 rule) explained: its origins in Pareto's wealth research, power law distributions, real applications in business and...
Every choice sacrifices alternatives. Speed vs accuracy, cost vs quality, flexibility vs efficiency, growth vs stability. No perfect solution exists.
Goodhart's Law states that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Learn how gaming metrics destroys value — and how to...
In 1914 the British Admiralty employed 2,000 officials to administer 62 ships. By 1928, the fleet had shrunk to 20 ships — but the Admiralty had...
Pareto principle: 80% of effects come from 20% of causes. Leverage finds high-impact points.
Parkinson's Law states that work expands to fill the time available for its completion. Learn the 1955 origin, the evidence, and how to use it to...
Bikeshedding is the tendency for groups to spend disproportionate time on trivial issues while neglecting complex ones.
Rules tell you what to do; principles tell you how to think. Principles transfer across contexts while rules remain situation-specific.
The Peter Principle states that employees rise to their level of incompetence. Learn the original theory, empirical evidence, and alternatives to hierarchical promotion.
Laws break when context changes because they're context-dependent. Diversification reduces risk in stable markets but fails in correlated crises.
Tactics work until conditions change. Principles adapt because they're based on underlying truths, not surface patterns.