March 2026
- Mar 6, 2026ConceptsDecision Frameworks Used by High Performers to Think ClearlyPaul Meehl's 1954 review compared intuitive clinical judgment against rule-based prediction across 20 studies. Actuarial methods matched or beat the experts in 17 of them, and Grove and colleagues' 2000 meta-analysis of 136 studies found clinical judgment won in only 6 percent. This walks through eight frameworks: reversibility, regret minimization, 10/10/10, pre-mortem, decision journals, expected value, inversion and calibrated probability.
- Mar 5, 2026ConceptsMental Models That Make Every Decision SharperA working set of decision models, each with the conditions under which it fits: second-order thinking, inversion, first principles, opportunity cost, margin of safety and probabilistic thinking. Gary Klein's Recognition-Primed Decision work found experienced experts rarely compare options at all, and Chase and Simon's 1973 chess studies showed masters rebuilt positions from 5-second glances by chunking patterns, not better memory.
June 2025
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