2016 may have been something of a crazy year in the markets, with some shock results like the UK’s Brexit referendum, and the presidential election in the US, as well as less heavily publicised political events that impacted currencies and markets such as the Italian referendum on the country’s constitution.
2017 is likely to be just as interesting, and has already gotten off to a start that has kept market analysts, investors and spread betters on their toes thanks to changes in the pound as a result of Theresa May’s announcement regarding Britain’s status in the single market after Brexit, and the inauguration of POTUS Donald Trump. Trading platforms like ETX Capital have seen lots of activity in the wake of these events. So, what are some of the big global events this year that you should be looking at if you’re a spread better – or really anyone who is concerned with the markets?
The French Election on April 23rd
If Trump’s victory in 2016 or the British public voting yes to Brexit came as a surprise, then a victory in the French election for National Front leader Marine Le Pen would be another. The staunchly Euroskeptic candidate is not seen as the favourite to take France’s top job, however the chance that she might has to be taken seriously in light of last year’s elections!
Should Marine Le Pen win this election, this would indicate a strong probability that France would want to follow the UK out of the EU, and this is going to have a huge impact on the Euro. With Dutch and German elections in 2017 too, each political result that questions the strength of the EU as a unit is going to have important financial ramifications, and be well worth paying attention to.
The Dutch Election in March
Before we find out what France decides, the Dutch will have their say about the direction they are going to go in, and again, they have a strongly Euroskeptic candidate who seems to have a legitimate chance of winning power. Geert Wilders has been likened to the UK’s Nigel Farage, and his PVV party has gone from a small party to a serious contender based on its stance about the refugee crisis. Wilders is no fan of his country remaining in the EU, and the likelihood of a ‘Nexit’ if the public get behind him in the election will be very high. This would be another sign that some of the original EU member states are losing faith in the union, and would mean the first potential exit from the EU of a country that actually uses the euro.
The German Election – August to October
European elections are really the order of the year when it comes to known events that are going to have a big impact on the markets. Merkel will be trying to keep her position as German chancellor, but what analysts will be looking at is whether right wing AfD manage to gain ground against her and her coalition partners. Immigration is a hot topic in Germany, and one which is going to be a major point for both sides in this election.
So, 2017 is the year spread betters should brush up on their European politics, and pay serious attention to the euro.